U.S. Leading Economic Index Falls by 0.7% in March 2025
U.S. Leading Economic Index Falls by 0.7% in March 2025
On April 21, 2025, the Conference Board released its latest data on the U.S. Leading Economic Index (LEI), revealing a 0.7% decline in March, bringing the index down to 100.5. This marks the third consecutive monthly decrease, following a revised 0.2% drop in February.
The LEI is a composite of ten economic indicators designed to forecast future economic activity. The recent decline suggests potential challenges ahead for the U.S. economy. Key contributors to the March decrease included:
A significant drop in consumer expectations.
The largest monthly decline in stock prices since September 2022.
A slowdown in new manufacturing orders.
Despite these indicators, the Conference Board does not currently predict an imminent recession. However, they have adjusted their U.S. GDP growth forecast for 2025 to 1.6%, citing factors such as escalating trade tensions, potential inflationary pressures, and supply chain disruptions.
In contrast, the Coincident Economic Index (CEI), which reflects current economic conditions, rose by 0.1% in March to 114.4. This suggests that while future indicators point to potential slowdowns, the present economic environment remains stable.
The Conference Board emphasizes the importance of monitoring these trends, especially given the current global economic uncertainties. They advise businesses and policymakers to remain vigilant and adaptable to navigate the evolving economic landscape.
