US Gasoline Analysis – January-15-2024

As we enter the year, gasoline futures in the United States hovers around $2.10 per gallon. This marks a rise from the $2.03 low seen on January 8th. Let’s delve into the factors influencing these changes. A significant contributor to the current scenario is the political unrest in Libya. Protests have led to a complete stop in production at the Sharara oil field. This event has significantly reduced the crude oil supply, which is crucial for refineries. Moreover, the global trade patterns are shifting. Many tankers are avoiding the Red Sea route, adding to the complexities in the supply chain.

US Gasoline Stock and Consumption Data

A significant rise in gasoline stocks has been noted in the United States. According to the Energy Information Administration (EIA), there’s been an increase of over 8 million barrels in the first week alone. This follows an even more significant buildup of 10.9 million barrels the previous week, the largest in three decades. However, the consumption rate doesn’t align with this increase. The product supplied grew by 371 thousand barrels, not recovering from the 1.2 million barrel drop seen earlier.

API’s Insight into Inventory Builds

The American Petroleum Institute (API) also provides interesting insights. Their data shows two consecutive weeks of large inventory builds, with the numbers rising by nearly 4 million and 7 million barrels in the last two weeks.

NATGAS Analysis 4-Hour Chart