Crude Oil Analysis – January-22-2024

Monday witnessed a slight decline in oil prices, settling at around $73 per barrel. This adjustment follows a period of gains last week. The shift occurred as Libya’s largest oil field, Al-Sharara, restarted operations after a three-week hiatus. This pause in production directly resulted from political protests that disrupted the region.

The National Oil Corporation of Libya made a significant announcement on Sunday, declaring the end of force majeure, a legal measure that had halted operations. The resumption of activities at the Al-Sharara oilfield is notable, as it boasts a production capacity of up to 300,000 barrels per day. This development marks a pivotal moment in Libya’s oil production capabilities.

Crude Oil Analysis 4-Hour Chart

Middle East Supply Risks Under Scrutiny

Investors are exhibiting caution in the broader context of the global oil market. The ongoing Houthi attacks on shipping routes in the Red Sea remain a significant concern, posing potential risks to the stability of oil supply from the Middle East. A U.S. official has commented on the situation, indicating that effective military action to counter these assaults might require more time.

These geopolitical tensions add a layer of complexity to the global oil market, influencing investor sentiment and market dynamics.

Global Oil Demand Outlook

Looking at the demand side of the equation, both the International Energy Agency (IEA) and the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) have recently shared optimistic forecasts. They predict a robust growth in global oil demand this year, underpinned by solid market fundamentals.

This projection suggests a resilient demand for oil, potentially balancing the uncertainties and challenges on the supply side. As the global economy continues to navigate various geopolitical and economic challenges, the oil market remains a crucial area to watch, with its intricate balance of supply and demand dynamics.